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Analyze Your Trade Episode #43
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Steven Brooks of StevenBrooks.co
– Steven Place of InvestingWithOptions.com
Episode Timeline (click the times below to watch that segment on YouTube):
0:00 – Introductions.
4:00 – KEM
9:10 – REGN
13:50 – AMZN
19:40 – MMM
24:10 – Trade ideas of the week.
30:50 – LUV
35:30 – UCO
40:10 – SBUX
43:50 – URI
46:30 – BABA
51:40 – AMAT
57:10 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Steven Place: Download your Free Options Trading Indicator to find profitable Turning Points in the market.
From Mike: Follow @OptionsMike on Twitter. And Get News Trade Alerts Daily!
From Steven Brooks: Schedule A One-On-One Session
From Jim: You can get comprehensive Option education here.
Other Partner Offer:
Did you ever think that becoming a professional trader is out of reach? Think again.
Click to learn about an important upcoming event.
TopstepTrader has funded more than 1,800 traders just like you with live trading capital. They take all the risk. You keep the first $5,000 in profits and 80% thereafter.
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AYT073118
Crowd Forecast News Episode #190
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Jane Gallina of SeeJaneTrade.com
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
4:00 – Questions #1 & #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
8:00 – Question #3; Why?
17:30 – Question #4; Who or what first inspired you to be a trader?
29:00 – Additional discussion about trading.
39:00 – Trade ideas of the week.
50:20 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From A.J.: A.J. Brown’s White Papers
From Jane: Learn about The Modern Trader’s Summit and get updates on next year’s event
Did you ever think that becoming a professional trader is out of reach? Think again.
Click to learn about an important upcoming event.
TopstepTrader has funded more than 1,800 traders just like you with live trading capital. They take all the risk. You keep the first $5,000 in profits and 80% thereafter.
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN073018
Crowd Forecast News Report #253
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport072918.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (July 30th to August 3rd)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 46.2%
Lower: 53.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.7%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 69.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.3%
Responses Submitted This Week: 43
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 50.0
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.3% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 0.45% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 53.8% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 33 times in the previous 252 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 36% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.15% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Despite a good pullback in the SPX on Friday, and the NASDAQ & RUSSELL getting whacked, market internals (stocks > their 50d ma & advance/decline, etc.) are still positive. Also, while the S&P broke below it’s 10d ema, it ended up closing above it – another positive sign. Overall, most companies are still easily beating earnings expectations, so looking for more of the same next week.
• Earning
• High momemtum
• The nomination of Judge Kavanaugh and proceedings might influence a positive move maybe I guess
• Expect general bullish trend to continue based on anticipated positive earning reports and other news.
• slight positive momentum
• earnings
• Because I did all anyone can do and took a guess. Hopefully I’m right but it doesn’t really matter to me as long as there is movement in one direction or the other
• Good economy
• GDP 4.1%
• Trump is winning. His style is getting results even if the mainstream media hates it. No more excuses now that economic data is showing positive results. All that could happen is to have oil sky rocket too fast it’s on its way up as a result of global economic growth.
• I’m clueless this week!
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Tougher earnings season.
• Tariffs
• My technical indicators are down reacting to the mixed to down response to tech earnings & guidance. The Fed this week will say nothing that will be encouraging & XLF will sell off. AAPL will disappoint & the NFP will be less strong than last month. End of month & beginning of month portfolio adjustments will confuse the situation further. However, the VIX & IV is saying that there is nothing to worry about yet but they are not bullish either. For now, momentum is down & it’s time to raise cash.
• too many stocks selling off
• Over bought. Retracement needed. Seasonal slow down. Bearish news out there
• wave
• Technical and tired mkt even good news is getting sold Few names have pulled it higher now they’re failing
• Elliott Wave
• The downside correction of the market continues. The FANG stocks are beginning to crack and many of the institutional favorites are turning down after earnings and disappointing outlooks.
• The market drop on Friday after a favorable GDP appears to mark a reversal to the upward trend. There’s more room to drop.
• please note this is the 2nd time I’m filling this out but you seem to be unaware I’ve already submitted this, I believe on Friday.
• Historically not a good month
• wave 3 down has begun pseudo-tech stocks deflating
• Seasonal, technical & defusing enthusiasm may create sell offs. There could be still two to three bullish days.
• no reasons for the market to go up
• Overbought market
Question #4. Who or what first inspired you to become a trader?
• Dr. Elder’s book “Trading for a Living”. Laid out the three necessary pillars (detailed trade plan, money management, & psychology) in an easy to understand format.
• Wall Street Week
• Mom
• The desire to generate income by other means than a conventional job.
• interest in chart watching
• Not sure. I’ve always been somewhat interested in the markets. Although seeing pit trading in the movies is pretty cool.
• My grade 11 economics class. Played the fake market game. Exciting. OptionEtics introduced me to options and I never looked back.
• Unfortunately it was ElliottWave because I got caught up in the number magic of math. It took me YEARS to realize that EW does NOT predict the market.
• Time to write a novel
• My friend who told me that’s how people become rich.
• Necessity became the mother of invention for me.
• Larry Williams
• love to gamble– better odds than cards
• Money
• I was a commodity broker for 17 years and when I decided to leave that realm, I decided that I would trade stocks for myself.
• I had a natural interest in the trading game while I was a teenager, and before I had the money to trade.
• My dad
• To recover a lost capital for a business and now I lost literally all capital I had. I think not 90 but 96% of traders fail at some point and lose their capital.
• bitcoin
• The lure of increasing my savings faster than average.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Buy low, sell high or sell high, buy low.
• Oil rising as demand side moves it up. Precious metals will rise as does yuan and inflation as a result of growrh5.
• An Optimist says, “IT JUST CAN’T GET ANY BETTER THAN THIS!!!!!!!” Unfortunately, a pessimist says the same thing. So that’s what happened to tech this past week. Expect the sell off to continue on Monday and if it’s enough, Friday could actually be higher than Monday’s open but expect August trading not to be “Too Damned Hot”.
• What can you do for me?
• Even good news is getting sold
• All this is speculatory and requires lot of luck, hard work, focus and care to preserve original capital.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #190
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, July 30th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Jane Gallina of SeeJaneTrade.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #43
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, July 31st, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Steven Brooks of StevenBrooks.co
– Steven Place of InvestingWithOptions.com
Partner Offer:
TopstepTrader has funded more than 1,800 traders just like you with live trading capital. They take all the risk. You keep the first $5,000 in profits and 80% thereafter.
Analyze Your Trade Episode #42
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
Episode Timeline (click the times below to watch that segment on YouTube):
0:00 – Introductions.
5:20 – TLT
12:50 – GDDY
18:40 – UUUU
22:00 – EDIT
26:50 – AMD
31:40 – CSX
36:50 – LSCC
39:50 – NFLX
45:40 – Individual trade ideas.
51:20 – SYMC
Guest Special Offers:
From Dean: “Beyond the Noise” FREE Weekly Newsletter
From Christian: Ger your first month of Elite Trader Package for $7.99
From Larry: 7 Step Directional Trading Profits Formula Interactive Webinar
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
AYT072418
Crowd Forecast News Episode #189
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com was supposed to join us today, but he had something come up and wasn’t able to make it, we’ll try to have him back soon.
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
4:30 – Question #1 & #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
6:40 – Question #3; Why?
20:20 – Question #4; Methodology, money management, or psychology?
39:00 – Trade ideas of the week.
50:00 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From John: Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
From Mike: Follow @OptionsMike on Twitter. And Get News Trade Alerts Daily!
From Jim: You can get comprehensive Option education here.
From Roy: Give Your Trades the “Green Light”!
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
CFN072318
Crowd Forecast News Report #252
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport072218.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (July 23rd to July 27th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 51.3%
Lower: 48.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.6%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.8%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 50.5
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 75.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 63% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.45% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.3% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 22 times in the previous 251 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 64% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.69% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Big names reporting this week with strong earning’s reports expected. Underlying market internals looking strong (adv/dec, stocks > 50d ma, etc.). Last couple of weeks have been flat, appearing to establish a baseline (support) for further advancement into earnings.
• Conservative Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh confirmed today according to the Heretage Foundation email
• less talk of trade war
• Positive Earnings Reports
• Contrary reaction to the latest news.
• good corporate earnings
• History
• Market went sideways this past week after hitting new highs, i.e. no sell-off. Earnings have been strong.
• Earnings
• economyisgreat
• I’m still of the opinion that higher earnings will move the averages a little higher.
• Week should be weak but market will pick up later to end slightly higher
• It’s earnings season
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Currency war, trade war, shooting next?
• Rising rates
• sems like topping action
• tariffs
• The weakness to overcome the 2820. From Wednesday’s decline suggests a slight correction for next week
• big peak on Thursday and immediate selloff
• It is over bought
• Weekly bearish divergence in the S&P emini. Also reached the time and price targets for a wave c completion.
• cycles
• low vix
• Elliott
• Market continues to deteriorate except for the dozen or so favorite stocks.
• potential currency war
• rising interest rates the good news is out
• Trend is short term down. Stochastics falling.
Question #4. Between methodology, money management, and psychology which do you think is most important and why?
• MONEY MANAGEMENT!!! A true believer after painful evidence in the past of being 75% correct over a month & still not being profitable. After becoming more disciplined; have had months where I was only around 50% correct (42% one month); but was still profitable.
• Psychology
• probably the only one you can control as an indidividual
• Money Management. No one can predict what the next trade will do. Money management keeps you in the game.
• They are all very important. None can be ignored!
• psychology
• Methodology – primarily, need to have a plan for generating profits.
• Right now I think psychology is having more of an influence on the market. Good corporate earnings help, but there are a lot of other factors weighing on the market. Biggest of which is tariffs. How much of an effect is that going to have on future earnings?
• Methodology and money risk management are both ruled by our psychological make up. Weak on any of these factors we lose so we need all 3 but method and modus is the most critical part.
• Psychology
• Methodology. With the right program, the only money management you need is how to spend it all. That should make you happy.
• Money mgmt lives to fight another day
• money management, no money, no future
• Psychology!!!
• methodology. use what works.
• Methodology. It is a start, then money management
• money management.
• Money Management because if you don’t limit your losses, you will be out of the game.
• psychology – people worried about their money
• money mangement methodology are both essential
• Money management is the main skill needed for continuation of trading.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Market is never overbought.
• Always stay put
• best seasonal indicators?
• What is in it for me?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #189
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, July 23rd, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #42
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, July 24th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
Crowd Forecast News Report #251
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport071518.pdf
Audio explanation of this report is available in the following video as well as in podcast form through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Crowd Forecast News Report #251 Full Report:
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (July 16th to July 20th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 75.0%
Lower: 25.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 50.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 69.1%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 72.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 11.5%
Responses Submitted This Week: 47
26-Week Average Number of Responses: 48.4
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 63% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 56% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 0.93% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 75.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 19 times in the previous 250 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 63% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.29% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 63% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 50.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• bull market
• Breakout
• Good 3M price today to 201.50$ is a leader in the past of strength in stocks on the Dow Jones Indistrial Average or others
• long term bullish unless its breakdown 50 day moving average support. Monthly advance /decline is tilted towards the advance
• Tariffs and trade concerns will disturb the trend until uncertainty subsides but the trend is up as long as earnings satisfy & the outlook is carefully worded in a positive direction. But for trade uncertainty, the market would be up at least another 10% or more so the market is counting on an outcome that is not negative. Sadly, the FAANG’s are disproportionately screwing the market up but if rotation occurs & if the Financials participate, we will see dynamically positive action sometime soon.
• Indexes run higher a bit longer but most gains are made. Market may correct by midweek on.
• Economic optimism will continue in the third quarter
• break above the MAs
• Lower taxes
• good earnings reports
• Momentum and OPEX
• The economy is good and getting better.
• still buying
• The dip in the S&P during the week was shallow; and buyers swooped in. Tech stock momentum is strong. This market wants to go higher.
• The market seems to have digested the news about additional tariffs against China. It did rally from its support off of 2690 last week. Unless this administration announces additional tariffs, the stocks should be moderately higher at the end of the week. Earnings are likely to have some positive impact.
• I think the market will move higher in response to higher earnings. Most companies in the S&P 500 should beat estimates.
• MOMO
• Earnings Tech momentum
• Flations of all kinds together. Consumer down, it commodity up. Gold goes down to a base. Oil marches higher as sanctions kicking in . Eventually, really the growth story will solidify. Markets already anticipating it. Thus ES moves higher. Higher on the week end is my assessment with over 80% confidence.
• It’s the EverReady Bunny.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Tough call for me this week. Mixed signals; but appearing short term overbought. Looking for NFLX earnings to disappoint; but MSFT to beat. Therefore leaning towards unchanged to just slightly lower.
• Markets have topped
• tariffs
• Political rhetoric.
• The downside correction will continue until the public says just get me out.
• much uncertainty over trade wars/tariffs
Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show? (The show is off this coming week, but back on July 23rd.)
• Why/when will the market breakdown( effect of trade tariffs, inflation 10 year treasury interest rate, bull run of 10 years is the longest
• I like profit in cash
• money management
• Funding. Are there any real funding firms out there for ES futures traders? Or do they all involve paying for an expensive course first?
• High probability trading
• Use of covered calls to generate race he in higher moving markets. Strangles?
• Market reaction to news events.
• technical indicators
• Hedging ones portfolio
• I have no questions about the people I do not consider as experts in any case !!!
• dividends and monthly income
• I would like to know your team’s thoughts on the long term effects of Trump’s trade war and tariffs might have on US economy.
• List the indicators that are 80% reliable if any. Without an 80% edge, flipping a coin is just as good.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• keep’ em coming
• This crowd forecast survey is a great idea!
• My call For Hire gold is being delayed but I still anticipate it moving higher before the beginning of the 4th quarter
• It’s difficult enough to predict the move in the market from Friday’s close to Friday’s close but it is a fool’s errand to predict Friday’s close from Monday’s unknown open. This prediction format needs to be changed since anything can happen on Monday.
◦ TimingResearch Response: That would be interesting but ultimately useless since you can’t go back in time and put positions on before Friday’s close. Hypothetically, having a good prediction of what the market will do from Monday’s open to Friday’s close (in the future, relative to this report being published on Sundays) is the only way that this would be of any use to anyone. That’s what this experiment is trying to accomplish.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #189
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, July 23rd, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Lineup:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #42
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, July 24th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Lineup:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
Partner Offer:
Join me for the online-only Wealth365 Summit July 16th-21st where you’ll be exposed to more speakers, new topics and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of free prizes from top wealth experts.
Analyze Your Trade Episode #41
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
Episode Timeline (click the times below to watch that segment on YouTube):
0:00 – Introductions.
5:10 – BIIB
13:00 – SPY
21:30 – XLF
30:20 – CELG
38:40 – WMT
43:20 – BGS
46:20 – Individual trade ideas.
53:50 – IBB
1:01:10 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Dean: “Beyond the Noise” FREE Weekly Newsletter
From Christian: Ger your first month of Elite Trader Package for $7.99
From Jim: You can get comprehensive Option education here.
From Larry: 7 Step Directional Trading Profits Formula Interactive Webinar
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Other Partner Offer:
Join me for the online-only Wealth365 Summit July 16th-21st where you’ll be exposed to more speakers, new topics and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of free prizes from top wealth experts.
Click HERE to register for FREE!
AYT071018
Crowd Forecast News Episode #188
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the stocks submitted by people who registered to view this episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
This Episode’s Panel:
– Kirk Du Plessis of OptionAlpha.com (first time guest!)
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
11:10 – Question #1 & #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
15:10 – Question #3; Reasons?
35:50 – Hedging strategies?
52:40 – Trade idea of the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Kirk: 12 Specific Options Trading Courses Designed to Get You From Beginner to Professional
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
From Simon: One Simple Adjustment To 7x More Profit
From Mike: Follow @OptionsMike on Twitter. And Get News Trade Alerts Daily!
From Neil: Reliable Indicators That Actually Work
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By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Other Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“
CFN070918
Crowd Forecast News Report #250
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport070818.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (July 9th to June 13th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 71.1%
Lower: 28.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 42.2%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.1%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 48
26-Week Average Number of Responses: 49.0
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 62.5% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 2.03% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 71.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 18 times in the previous 249 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 44% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.83% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 50.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Summation indexes turning up & market breadth improving. After Friday’s strong movement on low volume; expecting weakness early week, declining to moving averages, and then strengthening into week’s end.
• July up
• A new conservative constitutional Supreme Court nominees bee maybe
• Technicals see rising trend
• Even though all logic is to the contrary, all my momentum and sentiment indicators are not only bullish, they are very bullish so I’m going with the flow. With tariffs, geo-political conflicts, currency problems, emerging market weakness, interest rates rising, this could be a fake move but I think that the market is about to break out anticipating strong earnings on Friday and beyond. Weak hands have been severed and strong market moving hands are in control.
• Positive Earnings
• Tax cut
• The economy is booming, low unemployment.
• still buying
• The S&P was up this past week, showing immunity to all the trade war chatter. So it could very well continue. Next resistance about 2800.
• The current positive market momentum should continue in the coming week. However, there are likely a couple of down days mainly because of tariff war.
• Q’s and Techs are recovering as are small caps.
• got good fundamentals. trade tariffs easing..
• trade war is a good reason to buy the market apparently.
• Trade wars heat up. But Murica’ is self sufficient consumption. Just going to cost a bit more for imports. Who cares…. print it up! Good for the markets!
• Banks own stocks.
• Major negatives have already been priced into a market that has greater than 4% GDP predicted growth.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Tariffs
• Trade war becomes very real with o resolution in sight
• yeses
• tradevwar intensifies
• International Trade Negotiations with China are going poorly for President Trump
• The downside correction will continue until the public says just get me out.
• trade war
• momentum and second derivative of momentum weak
• From High early next week a low should be formed around Friday the 13th
Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
• Sell covered calls
• Futures
• I took some profits today as well as yesterday. I hope to keep this cash ready when I see some good opportunities. Hopefully I will not miss these opportunities.
• I will put an option hedge on the VXX
• yes
• actual hedging and options
• options on futures positions vs. stops
• option spreads
• I have recently increased my % in JNUG Gold ETFs
• leveraged inverse etfs
• I am holding a few short ETF funds currently in case market goes back to a downtrend.
• Stops based on technical chart pattern
• Longer term options to help keep portfolio close to delta neutral.
• I closely watch the market and act accordingly.
• VXX, SPY puts and futures.
• use of the VIX.
• inverse etf
• Stop Loss Orders
• SPY puts and/or VIX calls
• I don’t
• Sell covered calls
• Selling OTM puts for issues and products I want to own. Going long option spreads in the directions I’m thinking. Having trailing stops combined with limit orders after I take a position. Keeping 1/3 to 1/2 of my accounts in cash until the market makes an extreme move down for me to take advantage of much lower prices. Listen to a wide range of advice but trust NO ONE! Take responsibility for all trades you make.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Unreliable markets all around the world. hanging by a thread
• Tariffs and trade war are completely unnecessary. Economic growth would have continued just fine.The economic advisor Kudlow had previously during Reagan administration seen the negative impact of such tariffs on American economy. Yet he is now willingly agreeing with the current administration on this. I suspect we retail investors/general public are in the dark of much of what is happening, sadly. It is extremely upsetting to see market gyrations, especially if one is not into day trading.
• yes
• Gold to benefit from the ‘flation’. Up we go. The giant H&S target is +320 points from the shoulder.
• Hmm… I like the concept of the system for market decisions !
• Our DOJ looks like it’s patterned out of a “Banana Republic” and why Trump does not order it to comply with the demands of Congress, I do not know and can’t imagine why. At least the new Supreme Court will be committed to following the Constitution and not re-writing it.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #188
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, July 9th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com
– Kirk Du Plessis of OptionAlpha.com (first time guest!)
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #41
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, July 10th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
Partner Offer:
In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
“Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!“