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Analyze Your Trade Episode #63
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
4:00 – AAPL
6:30 – General market thoughts and earnings.
16:20 – MU
20:20– IWM
24:40 – AMGN
31:50 – CAT
37:00 – ABBV
43:50 – BABA
50:20 – TLT
54:30 – PANW
56:10 – AMD
57:10 – SQ
1:02:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
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AYT012919
Crowd Forecast News Episode #211
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
5:20 – Questions #1 and #2; Higher or Lower? Confidence?
13:30 – Question #3; Reasons?
28:20 – Question #4 and Trade ideas.
48:40 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Norman: The Disciplined Trader Mastery Program (Free Trial)
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
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CFN012819
Crowd Forecast News Report #279
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport012719.pdf
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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (January 28th to February 1st)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 60.0%
Lower: 40.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 20.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 25
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 42.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 57.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 52% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 0.26% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 60.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 11 times in the previous 278 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 45% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.69% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Momentum
• Tourism is still ok I think there are full travel areas still like Florida and ski areas
• General mood is upbeat
• Best six months of the year historically
• Government shutdown finished.
• Earnings surprises
• Manipulation
• The shutdown is over for a few weeks and I think trade with China will get something done
• Seems like the market has a little momentum behind it now. the temporary truce in Washington and federal workers back to work should help too.
• sidewise to up while overbought, good consolidation, a/d, and momentum
• Earnings reports mostly positive, end of shutdown…for now.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• too much unstable things like china trade, iran, oil, etc
• gov spending gov open
• reaching resistance areas,
• need to re-test , plus big week for earnings could disrupt up move /
• Resistance will hold and the market will react to the numerous earnings reports this week.
• Overbought
• Data won’t be reailable
• End of month.
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Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
• Watch market daily
• Profit
• Watch general trends using candlestick and fibonacci techniques
• Rise in net worth
• Advance decline ratio
• Risk/reward ratio
• Watch them hourly.
• technical
• total return
• price/profit
• technical and seasonality
• 200day ma -we are still below 200 ma –and look for stacked ma,s ..8 over the 20 over the 50.heading up
• accounting
• Return on capital
• Simple quantitive method and time accuracy measurement.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• For long term look at the Death Cross. Be inverse during bear markets and profit with this next bear.
• The question whether we will take a trade or not the upcoming week, I’m sure it shows a lot.
• Watch for first quarter early announcements
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #211
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 28th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #63
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 29th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– TBA
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Crowd Forecast News Report #278
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport012118.pdf
ADVERTISEMENT
Many former TimingResearch show guests and other trading experts will be speaking at the biggest and best online-only Wealth365 Summit taking place January 21-26th. Speakers have agreed to make sure to focus on actionable content and real wealth education during the presentations to make sure your time is well spent with us. This is the biggest online-only wealth show in the world so don’t miss out. It’s where you need to be to kick of 2019 right!
Click HERE to learn more and register!
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close (January 22nd to 25th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 57.6%
Lower: 42.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 15.2%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 64.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 42.6
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 52% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 54.3% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 53% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.50% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 57.6% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 29 times in the previous 277 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 48% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.47% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 52% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Post holiday euphoria, maybe.
• Earnings
• INDICATORS
• January effect
• up trend
• Todays performance.
• Going with continuation of the recent uptrend. Some resistance at 2730; strong resistance at 2800-10.
• Economic outlook.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Political behaviors from the executive and legislative branches are becoming detrimental to the economy and the trust of investors. The working class is going through lots of stress with lower income and cos of living increasingly expanding to areas previously stable; instead of one job nowadays 1 FT and 1 PT. Medical and other work benefits increasingly more expensive and often no longer available with their jobs.- America slowing become a third world economy!!!
• Market has been straight up for several days and the earnings reports were not impressive.
• A Stansberry Research email suggests a pullback, possibly a retest of the Dec. 24th lows before the uptrend continues. Market Trend Signal gave a general market “sell” signal on Dec. 21st. This is only the 5th “sell” signal in the last 20 years! The prior “buy” signal was on June 8th, 2016!
• due for a correction
• Markets need a bit of rest from the dramatic rally from the December lows.
• exhaustion of momentum
• Resistance levels will hold and downside action will follow.
• Al Brooks analysis. Its over for the S&P
• It has been up non stop with two very tiny Pullbacks but market needs to have some selling to remain sane n to entice buyers
• Too many up days
• RSI hour and Hour 4 Are up high with room to drift lower.
• Too much uncertainty. This recent upmove is climactic and therefore unsustainable.
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Many former TimingResearch show guests and other trading experts will be speaking at the biggest and best online-only Wealth365 Summit taking place January 21-26th. Speakers have agreed to make sure to focus on actionable content and real wealth education during the presentations to make sure your time is well spent with us. This is the biggest online-only wealth show in the world so don’t miss out. It’s where you need to be to kick of 2019 right!
Click HERE to learn more and register!
Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show? (The show is off this coming week, but back on January 28th.)
• The value if multilateral free trade.
• When you sell put or call options how many days to expiration one should place the orders in general (no earnings play)?
• How effective is Elliot Wave Theory?
• Market timing and finding long term trends on all Time Frames
• Why and How Short term traders and investors are made to lose almost always. 2. How to trade or invest with majority of transactions by algos.
• How safe is to invest in foreign markets that are more aggressive than ours? How to limit the impact of taxation; federal and state levels? Could we have or have access to a good investment template/ strategies to have whether new or savvy investor.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• I like the experts showing the chart during the discussion, for it’s much easier to understand the point of view. Thank you very much.
• Big question is Can small short term traders and investors stay and continue fight with computer trading? I think most small investors and traders will not be able to win against the 70% of trades done by comupters
• What would America be in the next 10 years ? How do we change our priorities in regard to educating our children instead of expending our money keeping people in prison? ( FYI: USA spend on average child education $9,000/yr while keeping 1 person in prison $58,000/yr- Is this a smart way to invest in our future as a nation?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #211
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 28th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #62
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 29th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– TBA
ADVERTISEMENT
Many former TimingResearch show guests and other trading experts will be speaking at the biggest and best online-only Wealth365 Summit taking place January 21-26th. Speakers have agreed to make sure to focus on actionable content and real wealth education during the presentations to make sure your time is well spent with us. This is the biggest online-only wealth show in the world so don’t miss out. It’s where you need to be to kick of 2019 right!
Analyze Your Trade Episode #62
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
5:00 – Quick market overview from each guest.
9:20 – TTD
14:30 – FB
18:50 – TSLA
26:30 – F
32:00 – GOOGL
38:40 – WY
44:40 – BAC
49:40 – NVDA
50:50 – LMT
52:40 – AAPL
55:40 – HUYA
58:30 – Trade ideas of the week and closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Christian: Ger your first month of Elite Trader Package for $7.99
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT011519
Crowd Forecast News Episode #210
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
3:20 – Questions #1-3 discussion. Higher or Lower?
26:20 – Question #4; What do you think are the main reasons why most traders are not successful and consistent? What could the average trader do to improve consistency?
35:10 – Additional thoughts about the markets and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Neil: Enter Your Email for The Best ETF To Hold For the Next 10 Years Already up +20.41% in 2018
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN011419
Crowd Forecast News Report #277
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport011318.pdf
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (January 14th to 18th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 54.3%
Lower: 45.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 8.6%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 62.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 59.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.7%
Responses Submitted This Week: 36
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 43.0
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 53% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 63.9% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 69% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 2.39% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 54.3% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 30 times in the previous 276 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 53% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 53% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Good FOMC maybe now group
• In the first part of the week the correction to 2550, until the end of the week penetration rates in 2600
• Looks like we’re rebounding
• Temporary upswing
• Mean reversion and gut feeling
• Market pulling back drawing in more longs.
• China NewYear
• We are at a decision point !!! Either direction can apply. The weekly RSI is dropping, the Day RSI has turned up. The tricky part is the H4 RSI is nearing a high with the H1 RSI being confused. The H4 will either pull back Monday, Tuesday and then continue Long or it will fail and retest 2500 area.
• Index stochastics (daily chart) are in reversal range.
• Honestly I dunno where the heck it’s going!
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• fragile and reduced buying
• Magic 8 ball
• we are now up at key resistance spx 2600 and dow 24k -time to re-test .
• continued government shutdown
• Recent rally stops at resistance. This weeks earnings reports will put a damper on recent rally.
• Bank earnings this week; expecting uncertainty as they look to the future. Financial sector uncertainty with gov shutdown and future growth expectations can hold back the S&P.
• No resolutions to the 2 primary problems and earnings forecast will be lower
• Short term overbought condition combined with corresponding decline in A/D volume.
• hit the resistance
• volume is low
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Question #4. What do you think are the main reasons why most traders are not successful and consistent? What could the average trader do to improve consistency?
• If I knew the answer I’d still be trading and doing it successfully.
• Do NOT trade where you think it’s going. Instead, have a plan with stops based on risk/reward/probability. Assume probability is 40-60%.
• lack of a plan and discipline
• Poor money and risk management
• psychological
• fear
• Everything is a trap. If you haven’t seen it, you are in it. If it looks obvious it’s a trap. Wait for the play and then enter.
• Be patient
• Many traders jump into trades carelessly and pay too much attention to bad advice and news headlines.
• You must look at all TF’s and look from the top down as I have in Question #1 If the direction is not clear, do not trade, wait for that clear direction.
• Market Volatility induced by exogenous events.
• too many institutions with more money in the market speculating
• They do not lose losses until they are small. They too believes in their own infallibility.
• Discipline. Trade your plan.
• Stop sells at purchase price
• get better at interpreting candlesticks
• Knowledge needed of trends and market behavior. Few gain the knowledge.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• No, thank you, you are the expert.
• The more you learn the more you earn. Never ever give up! you will get it in time.
• Not Sure
• political gridlock
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #210
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 14, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #62
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 15th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
Partner Offer:
The Beauty of Options: In this free training, world renowned options trader, Jeff Bishop, will walk you through this ONE KEY SETUP that he uses daily to take advantage of crashing stocks. A small move in stock price can yield astronomical returns with options. Learn how here!
Analyze Your Trade Episode #61
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
5:00 – General market outlook from each guest.
8:40 – CLVS
15:10 – MU
21:20 – MSFT
30:40 – VZ
38:30 – NS
43:00 – JNJ
46:40 – AU
52:00 – SBUX
54:00 – DAL
57:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
From Michael: Free Pass to Candlelight Trading Trade Room
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT010819
Crowd Forecast News Episode #209
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– John Hoagland of TopstepTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
8:50 – Question #1; Higher or Lower?
10:40 – Questions #2-3; Confidence? Why?
29:30 – Upcoming events everyone is watching.
46:10 – What advice would you give and/or what resources would you recommend to someone who is new to trading?
1:00:00 – Trade ideas of the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From John: Do you need more capital to trade? Get funded in as little as 15 days, click here.
From Simon: Live Market Analysis Using Supply And Demand
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CFN010719
Crowd Forecast News Report #276
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport010619.pdf
Partner Offer:
The Alpha Fibonacci Method works on any instrument, any time frame, and any platform with ultimate accuracy at trend inception and trend reversals. You’ll see how on this online training.
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (January 7th to 11th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 63.9%
Lower: 36.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: 27.8%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.9%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 43.5
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 69% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 60.7% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 56% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.32% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63.9% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 29 times in the previous 275 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 69% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.19% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 69% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• cause up
• New lows have disappeared and this week is historically up
• Some of the technicals (Fibonacci levels) indicate that next week will be up
• 1. Oversold last 2-3 months 2 Solution of China tax issues 3.January reinvestment/new funds 4. Easing of potential interest rate increase
• Historically best six months
• measured move down with a reversal up accompanied by 10 times up volume to down volume
• Market structure tells we are in a down trend. The market has already come down a lot so any upward move now is a short-term pullback.
• Blue chips have hit several times book value, the mark of bear market bottoms. Value buyers are coming in.
• momentum
• random up week in a down market
• Still looking for a move up to the next resistance of 2575 or a bit higher, before the market turns back down.
• volume
• Upmove was very strong I don’t think it’s over yet even if this might be just a bear market upmove.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Sell programs
• Major down trend
• The reasons for the markets decline have not changed. The hope for change created strong short covering. The reality of “no” change will drive the markets lower again.
• We closed high on Friday and on Saturday we have a Solar Eclipse and Uranus goes direct, this normally means a reversal in the market not a continuation. Friday next week the Sun and Pluto goe into a conjunction often meaning a bottom.
• we hit the 20ema and feel we will head back down to re-test
• The downside correction continues until the public says “Just let me out”.
• market overbought
• needs to consolidate
• Downtrend continues
Partner Offer:
The Alpha Fibonacci Method works on any instrument, any time frame, and any platform with ultimate accuracy at trend inception and trend reversals. You’ll see how on this online training.
Question #4. What advice would you give and/or what resources would you recommend to someone who is new to trading?
• Learn about seasonality, market cycles, and sentiment.
• Learn skills first, then test them, then test them again.
• go in slowly-no rush unless you are sure and nobody is sure!
• finviz.com-investopedia.com–vixcentral.com-
• be a forever student
• go with your gut
• Study price action on twitter.
• Cut losses short
• McClellan oscillator don’t count on Santa
• coin flip
• Test everything thoroughly!
• Don’t get too influenced by news headlines. Learn candlestick charting.
• Learn how to read charts before you trade, especial candlesticks.
• There are way too many gurus out there. Just find some indicators you like (they don’t have to be unusual ones) and draw trendlines and look at support and resistance areas and keep your stops.
• Study the fundamentals first then the technicals
• Have a trading plan, always honor stops, and don’t exceed a preset daily loss limit
• study charts voraciously brush up math if needed go slow paper trade like you mean it open a small account – take real trades 1 lots so if it costs you commission so what, did you get you degree for free or even if scholarship, someone paid for it no pain no gain.enjoy it or do not bother-if its torture find a business you like and do that with the same described focus and attention.. this paragraph is copyrighted please do not use it publish it.. i will find it online ‘nopainnogain not included
• Stop trading
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Study study study and sim trade for a long long long time to get the feel . Read some of the best books on investing and trading. Turn off the TV. Learn to read price action and order flow. Key in on the market forces that move prices and measure them.
• It may take longer than you think, but don’t give up.
• no
• thanks for your interest.
Both shows are back this week!
Crowd Forecast News Episode #209
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 7th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Hoagland of TopstepTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #61
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, January 8th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– TBA
Partner Offer:
The Alpha Fibonacci Method works on any instrument, any time frame, and any platform with ultimate accuracy at trend inception and trend reversals. You’ll see how on this online training.