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Analyze Your Trade Episode #75
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
2:00 – MU
6:30 – MRTX
11:30 – EXEL & General market thoughts.
20:10 – AMZN
25:10 – IWM
32:20 – MGM
35:10 – MSFT
40:40 – AMD
46:30 – TSLA
51:40– RIG
56:00 – Trade ideas of the week and closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Bryan: AlphaShark Options Trading Blog: Options Trading Tips and Strategies
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AYT043019
Crowd Forecast News Episode #222
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com (first time guest!)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
3:40 – Questions #1-3; Higher or Lower? Confidence? Why?
32:10 – Question #4; What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
51:40 – Trade ideas of the week.
58:20 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Jake: Jake’s email updates
From Mark: My 3 Simple & Fundamental Strategies To Trading that Give Me an Edge Every Day in the Markets
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
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CFN042919
Crowd Forecast News Report #292
AD: 5 Experts Share Their Best Money Making Strategies
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport042819.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 29th to May 3rd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 72.2%
Lower: 27.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 44.4%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 37
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 39.6
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 65% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 61.5% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.42% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 72.2% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 20 times in the previous 291 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 65% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.09% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 65% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
AD: 5 Experts Share Their Best Money Making Strategies
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 36.4%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Momentum
• trend
• breakout
• Better earnings
• Banking is still reasonably OK and the China/U.S. trade deal seams to be moving forward.
• The trend is still higher
• We are in wave B. By FB retrac. wave B will be minim. 127% of wave A. That is, the SP will reach the 3100 in the short term
• Market closed at all time high
• Momentum
• Usually new highs all around hit the same week to suck in other longs before a correction. Statistically higher first week of May as well. New highs will undoubtedly bring choruses of “Sell in May doesn’t work anymore” just before a drop!
• more good earnings reports
• Positive results from Earnings season
• The market has been reacting positively to recent earnings/revenue reports. The upward trend is likely to continue.
• Still best six months of year historically
• MO & Earnings
• Earnings push the S&P up a bit
• Trend up continues
• Trend continues
• earnings still to come
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Selloffs in individual stocks continues
• stocks selling off individually
• Overbought
• 80% of double tops as in s/p..dow qqq,,usually sends them back down
• waiting to start wave 4
• The market remains overbought and needs a downside correction. More earnings reports are due this week.
• IWM nonconfirmation
• People can’t continue to be irrational forever.
AD: 5 Experts Share Their Best Money Making Strategies
Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?
• PFE, GM, MRK, MA, COP, BP, QCOM, CVS and a few others.
• technical analysis-1-yr daily chart
• broker stats
• Just the chart appearance itself, moving average crossovers, sometimes the VIX gives indication of market direction.
• Stop loss. First hour tracking. Periodic visual checkups during the day. Plus I read market related info about five to six hours a day. My goal is to keep my head in the market flow without giving in to emotional basis.
• Equity curve
• P&L
• Fibonacci distribution to help me decide when to buy & sell. Sell on way up & buy on way down
• move avg
• Net worth tracking
• watch news track stocks I read your poll results i think it shows the crowd and the crowd is wrong at market tops this is nearing a market top
• read
• Download trade info and track using python.
• Account balance monitor. Win/loss ratio
• Fundemantal
• P/L and overall account value. Critical look at trades and what happened afterwards–did I stave off more losses? Leave too much on the table? Try to be objective without beating myself up…easier said than done!
• Price & Profits
• Notebook
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• above
• To ALL new traders. Trade small and trade often! Do post trade examination of every trade.
• sell gold
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #222
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 29th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com (first time guest!)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #75
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 30th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
AD: 5 Experts Share Their Best Money Making Strategies
Analyze Your Trade Episode #74
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Guest Special Offers:
From A.J.: In 5 Minutes Or Less You Will Have Your First Instant Income Calendar Trade Opportunity!
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
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AYT042319
Crowd Forecast News Episode #221
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Timeline (click to watch on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
4:30 – Questions #1-3; S&P Higher or Lower? Confidence? Why?
25:30 – Trade management and other market discussion.
56:00 – Closing statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From Michael: CandleLightTrading.com – Lighting the Way to Profitability
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
Crowd Forecast News Report #291
AD: Get Access To 3 Top Trading Services
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport042119.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 22nd to 26th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 61.5%
Lower: 38.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 23.1%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 63.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.4%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.4%
Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 63.9% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.11% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 61.5% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 59 times in the previous 290 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 58% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.06% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
AD: Get Access To 3 Top Trading Services
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 36.4%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• In the short term (days) price is oscillating downwards. The 50day linear regression channels show an upward trend at an equivalent slope of 45% PA
• st trend
• Post holiday seasonality
• Guess
• Mueller case is behind us now.
• still trending up
• ok
• Continues above trend line…
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Can’t break resistance
• Bearish Divergences
• Rest time.
• waiting to see if wave 4 is starting
• The S&P has done well for a few weeks. It’s probably time for a mild sideways-to-down spell.
• The market is overbought and needs some downside action. This is the biggest week for earnings reports.
• Ever Increasing % down volume
• There were a key reversal day om yhe s&p 500 the previous week
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Question #4. What is your best piece of advice for trade management?
• Use your best I dicator and shepherd each trade.
• Understand the Industry you are investing in.
• Strict control
• only bet 50% of your wins each time. Ghost trade if you make a loss, at the first win revert to real money
• stops
• ok
• Manage your sizing
• Position size – scale in and scale out
• Don’t stick with a losing stock trade too long. It’s usually a better to switch that position into a better percentage play.
• Trailing Stop
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Ok
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #221
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 22nd, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #74
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
ADVERTISEMENT
The team at TraderFinds has put together a limited opportunity for you to get trial access to 3 top trading services at no cost or obligation to you.
Any one of these services could help you take your trading to the next level, just click the link to start your test dive: Right Line Trading Live Trading Room, Alpha Shark Trade Alerts Service, Sentiment Timing Market Timing Report.
Analyze Your Trade Episode #73
Watch the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline (links below will open on YouTube):
0:00 – Introductions.
3:40 – BABA
7:30 – COST
9:20 – CVS
12:20 – ADSK
15:30 – SQ
20:10 – XLNX
23:40 – IBM
27:20 – LEVI
32:10 – XLF
37:00 – UNH
40:30 – CRM
44:30 – JPM
48:40 – AXP
51:30 – DIS
54:30 – AMD
58:40 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Larry: Special Earnings Game Plan Interactive Webinar
From Bryan: AlphaShark Options Trading Blog: Options Trading Tips and Strategies
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT041619
1
Crowd Forecast News Episode #220
Listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Timeline (the following links will open on YouTube.com):
0:00 – Introductions.
6:30 – Questions #1-3; S&P500; Higher or Lower? Why?
17:00 – Question #4; What indicator influences your trading the most?
30:00 – Trade ideas of the week.
41:10 – Closing thoughts and statements.
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Guest Special Offers:
From A.J.: 6% solution: Stop listening to the hucksters that claim you need to day trade, or take crazy risks.
From Bennett: Follow the TradersCoach Facebook Page for trade ideas and lots of great information.
From Dave: $100 Reusable Promo Code-Good For All Products At DaveLandry.com
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN041519
Crowd Forecast News Report #290
AD: Watch the World Premiere of Money Revealed
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport041419.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 15th to 19th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 63.9%
Lower: 36.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: 27.8%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.1%
Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.2
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 61.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.55% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63.9% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 58 times in the previous 289 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 59% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
AD: Watch the World Premiere of Money Revealed
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• st trend
• Easter holiday week
• The trend is still our friend
• To the highest price from early October is a bit. The trend is convincingly LONG.
• Better than expected job growth.
• I recently added to my SDS long and SPY put hedges, so the market should skyrocket!
• bulls are in control
• Still best six months of the year and earnings should be ok
• More good bank earnings should help this week. Expecting the market to grind higher.
• Because earnings estimates have been reduced drastically, most companies will handily best the estimates, thus driving the S&P another leg higher.
• trend is up
• Trend plus Financials earnings
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• The China agreement will spark sellers panick
• Taxes maybe keep people busy from buying that is support maybe sometimes maybe some
• A recession is in the forecast.
• ITK
• Holiday shortened week should produce a pause for the current march to new highs allowing a small decline back towards 2880 – 2900
• Time to consolidate
• elliott wave formation
• The market is overbought and earnings season is beginning.
• lower earnings
• overbought
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Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?
• RSI
• the wrong ones
• MAs
• chart
• Exponential & Simple moving averages, RSI, & volume.
• DIVERGENCES
• I use 3, cci, rsi and ma
• ma200
• Keltner channels
• Economic
• Elliott Wave
• RSI
• Rsi
• Interest rates
• Price-volume action and trend channels.
• Charts and MAs.
• S&P 500 Index, Russell 2000 Index
• Elliott Wave Theory and Stochastic/Momentum Index.
• SMA or DMA (10,20,50,200)
• MACD
• The bull will flood the market with commodities to service the consumers before the summer. The bear market will appear for the bartering agreements.
• 8 MA & the IC
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• The Bitcoins have declined as negotiable instruments.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #220
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 15th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #73
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 16th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
ADVERTISEMENT
36 ways to get rich – watch the movie
Imagine if you just had $10-$20k per month rolling in… Just to take care of you… And you didn’t have to lift a finger to keep it flowing.
That—and more—is the reality for the wealthy because they know how to create passive income while the rest of us trade time for money.
That’s just one of the things you’ll learn about—at not cost—right here:
Crowd Forecast News Report #289
AD: 6 days + 70 world-class wealth experts = 1 fantastic event (click here).
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport040719.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 8th to 12th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 61.1%
Lower: 38.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 22.2%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 71.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.4%
Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.3
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Lower
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 64.7% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.55% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 61.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 14 times in the previous 288 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 43% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.72% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Economic reasons maybe I think some
• For the 2nd week in a row it’s been going up. keep going up baby!!!
• Higher oil prices and the continued increase o small cap stocks.
• Historically best six months
• Broke resistance and should be testing close to the all time high .. Volume is low and there is not much conviction after breaking resistance .. So it is a 2 blade knife .. but the bias so far is still to the Upside.
• Seasonality as researched by Norman Fasback in the early 1990s back to 1927 which showed that ALL of the market’s gains occurred on the last 2 trading days of the old month and the first 10 trading days of the old month! The rest of each month netted 0! Next week has trading day #6 – #10 for April. High probability, NOT guaranteed!
• Bullish momentum
• Good news
• weak trend will continue.
• go with the trend…until it ends
• history and world situation
• The S&P continues to drive upwards (no down days last week). It looks like it’s targeting the high from last September; and I wouldn’t bet against it getting there.-
• General improvement in global economic growth.
• trend is up
• Low Interest Rates
• Trend
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Wednesday is an important astrological turndate
• Time to re-group
• because -wil hit 2900 and re-test down.
• elliott wave 4 may be beginning
• Market is overbought. Market needs to back and fill to get healthy.
• Overbought, time for a break
• The 💰 has flowed in 1 thing unexpected and the herd will stampede 0ut
• Volatile markets lower trading due to uncertainty and global economic problems.
• Chart looks like a climactic top.
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Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show? (The show is off this coming week, but back on April 15th.)
• How useful is ” Sell in May & go away ?” #2. What resources can the DIY investor use to gauge the coming of a recession and how to prepare for one ?
• Levels Up and down ..
• No preference
• No reference
• Global macroeconomic issues managing volatile market conditions
• Trading market turning points
• Topping patterns
• trading vxxb weekly options
• Money management — need to consider 3 factors – risk reward probability. But how the heck to decide on probability? What if always guestimated probability to be 50%, then how to apply money management?
• The “Holy Grail” of trading
• Simple Trading Strategy/Systems for beginers
• Small caps and international markets such as China.
• Profit
• Option deltas
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Keep up the good work
• LOL
• Keep up the good analysis !!
• what is the performance of your survey’s?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #220
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 15th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #73
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 16th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
AD: 6 days + 70 world-class wealth experts = 1 fantastic event (click here).