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Analyze Your Trade Episode #117

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Watch here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:

On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.

New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Jim The Option Professor of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Symbols discussed today: AAPL, MA, TLT, AMD, SLV, CVX, DIS, GLD, AVGO, GDX, COST, ABR, COG, MSFT, TDOC, EEM, FXI

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Crowd Forecast News Episode #255

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Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this series is usually audio-only but this is a special episode with video):

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:

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On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Jim of OptionProfessor.com

You can download this week’s and all past reports here.

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Crowd Forecast News Report #337

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport030820.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 9th to 13th)?

Higher: 36.7%
Lower: 63.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -26.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 72.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 76.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -10.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 30
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 32.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.6% predicting Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 69% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.06% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63.3% predicting Lower with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 47 times in the previous 336 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 45% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.24% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 62.7%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• fears ease
• Friday last hour int0 cl0se
• Fridays close
• ready for a small bounce then down further.
• Market appears to have retested the bottom this Friday (March 06, 2020) and recovered into closing. I believe the recent market correction was initiated due to the Corona-virus (Covid-19) becoming a global pandemic.
• The s&p can only go so low before a bounce back. Only an opinion…

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• China flue & loss of containment in Europe
• greetings from Coronavirus – impacting industry supply-chains, travel, airlines und many more …
• The fool US president, corona virus, and drain on consumer buying power resulting form excess concentration of wealth in too few hands.
• an increase in infections and deaths going to take the mkts lower
• In daily vision it’s poised for an upside, but if you look at a weekly chart it’s not poised for a weekly bounce. My 70% chance it’s because statistically it could bounce after having a retest of the lows, however the Corona Virus pandemic it’s still a risk and it’s not going away soon.
• While I was a little surprised with some of the upswings after the hudge down days, I am not yet convinced that the selling pacic of the corona virus is over. For this reason I voted down for the week but with a low conviction as we watch this new threat progress. Not to make light of this situation but I plan to stay calm and use this time as a buying oppertunity.
• Downward trend
• Last weel performance
• broke major trend line
• production slow down china, corona virus global,
• The Fed lowering rates did not cause a rally, so what will? COVID-19 will continue to spread, with travel & crowd gatherings curtailed more; supply chains in trouble. Economies to be hurt for an extended time.
• Virus fear
• covid is out of control
• collapse in oil prices
• corona
• The news is bad

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Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading?

• Great question! Something i must work on.
• puts
• buying put spreads
• selling premium
• stops
• I only do speculative trading, however just buying gold or implementing covered calls should be enough.
• We will sometime place a collar on a long term position. I will also trade an underlying that is non-correlated to my open positions and finally we do use inverse TFs from time to time.
• 0
• Buying puts.
• puts
• puts
• gold
• 0
• Sell cash covered puts with low delta rather than buy stock
• emini’s bought and sold.
• I use Collar as a hedging strategy.
• go to cash
• option
• SPX puts
• Try to do a few points and sell after a 2% loss.
• None

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Italy has a mortality rate of 26% of those severely infected. Since Italy is an 1st world country, how can China’s numbers be correct, given the fact it hit there 1st and China living conditions are inadequate compared to Italy? This is far worse than shown! Withn two months i believe they’ll be growing issues on every continent.
• Nobody I mean nobody can predict the stock market….only the cheaters.

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Synergy Traders #11, Day 4: Women Teach Trading and Investing: Opportunities for Everyone in Today’s Markets

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This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Thursday, March 5th, 2020. These are the Day 4 presentations, watch Day 1 here, Day 2 here, Day 3 here.

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Presenter: Megan Brantley of LikeFolio.com
Title: Using Social Data to Spot Opportunities: Six Stocks to Watch in 2020
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Kiana Danial of InvestDiva.com
Title: How To Take Control Of Your Financial Future And Make Your Money Work For You, So You Can Sleep Soundly At Night
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Melissa Armo of TheStockSwoosh.com
Title: Make 20K/Month Day Trading Stocks
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
Title: Springing into Profits Using Technical Analysis
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Samantha LaDuc of LaDucTrading.com
Title: Live Market Trading: Using Option Flow To Support Your Chart Read
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Amelia Bourdeau of MarketCompassLLC.com
Title: Event Risk and Forex
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Sandy Chaikin of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Title: Find Winning Stocks with 5 Simple Steps
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Kamie Zaracki of BetterInvesting.org
Title: Find Winning Stocks with 5 Simple Steps
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Synergy Traders #11, Day 3: Women Teach Trading and Investing: Opportunities for Everyone in Today’s Markets

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This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Wednesday, March 4th, 2020. These are the Day 3 presentations, watch Day 1 here, and Day 2 here.

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Presenter: Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider of MarketGauge.com
Title: Mish’s Trading Process LIVE!
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Kim Krompass of PriceActionTradersInstitute.com
Title: 3 Key Strategies to Increase Your Forex Trading Profits Now
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Toni Hansen of ToniHansen.com
Title: Holding onto Your Winning Trades
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Carley Garner of DeCarleyTrading.com
Title: Trading With Catastrophic Insurance Not Stops
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Mandi Rafsendjani of TradingPsychology.com.au
Title: How To Develop Cognitive Dominance To Conquer Trading Discipline
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Carolyn Boroden of FibonacciQueen.com
Title: Introduction To Advanced Fibonacci Time And Price Analysis
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Synergy Traders #11, Day 2: Women Teach Trading and Investing: Opportunities for Everyone in Today’s Markets

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This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2020. These are the Day 2 presentations, watch Day 1 here, and Day 3 here.

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Presenter: Samantha LaDuc of LaDucTrading.com
Title: Big Returns Come When You Allocate Resources Well
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Marina Villatoro of TheTraderChick.com
Title: 4 Steps to Analyzing The Live Market for High Probability Trades
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Alla Peters of FibonacciTradingInstitute.com
Title: How to Take Advantage of Market Crashes and Rallies with the Alpha Fibonacci System Traded on Wall Street
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
Title: 5 Ingredients for a Successful Trade
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Mary Ellen McGonagle of MEMInvestmentResearch.com
Title: How To Use Volume To Trade Stocks
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Synergy Traders #11, Day 1: Women Teach Trading and Investing: Opportunities for Everyone in Today’s Markets

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This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Monday, March 2nd, 2020. These are the Day 1 presentations, watch Day 2 here, and Day 3 here.

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Presenter: Mercedes Van Essen of MentalStrategiesForTraders.com
Title: The Psychology of Panic Cycles
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Jody Samuels of FXTradersEdge.com
Title: From Confusion to Clarity: A 3-Step Playbook
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Valerie Fox of ConsistentFXProfits.com
Title: Why Forex Trading Beats the Stock Market
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Hilary Kramer of HilaryKramer.com
Title: Faster, Stronger, Richer: The Two-Day Trader
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Melissa Armo of TheStockSwoosh.com
Title: Make Money Trading Volatility
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Jane Galina of SeeJaneTrade.com
Title: Everyone Wants To Trade The News, Here’s Why I Don’t Recommend It
Offer: HERE (code: WIT)
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
Title: Generate An Income Trading 2 Hours Per Day At The New York Session Open
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Presenter: Mandi Rafsendjani of TradingPsychology.com.au
Title: Emotional Mastery
Offer: HERE
Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:

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Crowd Forecast News Report #336

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport030120.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 2nd to 6th)?

Higher: 48.4%
Lower: 51.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.2%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 68.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 73.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 8.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 31
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 32.4

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 69% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 64.3% predicting Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed -9.31% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.6% predicting Lower with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 16 times in the previous 335 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 69% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.50% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 69% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Bounce after record falls, maybe supported by the Fed.
• I think it correct higher from the positive close on friday.
• Friday reversal of oversold market
• History
• The decline was to fast and bearish sentiment increased
• Bounce off last week
• Too much fear last week. Fed will step in when needed.
• Bounce back time
• I think spy going to307.53
• Just a rebound after a huge, almost panic drop.
• The market is over sold and due to a rebound.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Viruses
• More Corona Virus worries
• The recent down move has had a lot of momentum, suggesting to me that there’s more downside left. Most market analysts are expecting a bounce; so the bounce could be of short duration, then sold into. The virus effects should significantly slow growth in China, with this growth effect likely spreading elsewhere.
• this did a lot of damage this week so yes we can bounce for 2-4 days and then come down again.
• High volatility at this level until a lower strong support will be formed. Virus’ news and fed interference will give the tempo. It’s interesting to see whether a V respond, like 2018, will be developed. I’m not so optimistic on that.
• coronavirus
• I believe the virus accelerated the great recession that will occur in less than 12 months due to the extraction of consumer wealth to the rich much like it did with Robber Barons of the 1920’s resulting in the depression of 1929. Next could be a pull back in the market decline. Therefore, I have only 55% chance the market will be up next week.
• Coronavirus
• CoronaVirus
• Mainly the China flue and some reporting on future effects thereof. One magnifier, the media! The last 2 months seems to be reporting of pullback, etc.. I noticed this intensified 2 weeks ago.. However, the flue is a issue for sure..
• People are starting to freak out about the Coronavirus and it’s growing numbers and fist death here in the US. Slowdown will hopefully be brief. Hoping for an early spring because it’s harder for viruses to continue.

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Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show and/or which experts would you like to see on the show who haven’t been guests yet? (The show is off this coming week for the next Synergy Traders event, but back on March 9th.)

• Actions to take under unusual conditions such as the Crono virus problem.
• How to trade futures.
• The way the billionaire’s hold the consumer wealth causing a slow in business activity.
• recession proof portfolio
• Will the Fed rescue the market?
• don’t know
• what & how to trade bear markets
• Favorite indicators and how you use them
• Day trading Futures.
• market internals
• Provide real working systems

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• spy not finish going down look to 283.75
• So here we are today, if we are not closing the North American boarders for a month of so, then we must prepare. This I suggest the most effected will be the larger metro areas where people seem to be living on the streets. Large numbers such as 5,000 plus.. If we remember the New Orleans floods, there was 1 weeks notice and as we know the response and support critically failed in many ways, in the aftermath the state did the best it could and we all now this! Yes we know you did…. RE: This China flue, USA, Canada and other countries “NOW have time to prepare” the larger areas where the street masses are. If this fails, the hospitals will be over-run, and all will be taxed to beyond the fullest extent…. It is time for the provinces, states, city’s to prepare to help those who will be in need. Those who are wealthy, please step up and take the lead, you already know what to do, show yourself what you are :)
• what about TESLA, APPLE & FAANG-Stocks? All crashing down? How far??

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CFN and AYT are off this week so you can join us for this instead:

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Synergy Traders #11 — Women Teach Trading and Investing: Opportunities for Everyone in Today’s Markets: When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time: Monday-Thursday, March 1st-5th, 2020

Click here to find out more!

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