Weekly Report #156 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 69% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.
Click here to download the report: TRReport091816.pdf
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 69% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 63% Chance Lower; the S&P500 ended up 0.86% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower (less than 10% difference) and higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 13 times in the previous 155 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 31% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of up 0.06% during those weeks, i.e. under similar conditions previously the majority sentiment has most often been wrong. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 69% Chance Higher for the week.
You can download all past reports here.
TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode #104
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 19th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Guests:
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– Adam Johnson of BullseyeBrief.com
– Gary Dean of SentimentTiming.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Moderator:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!